Minority Report

Is it true?

In Richmond, Va., police use predictive analysis to determine the
probability that a particular type of crime--armed robbery, auto theft,
murder--will occur in a specific area at a given time. Police lieutenants who
command the city's 12 sectors use desktop computers linked to the system to
decide where to deploy a mobile task force of 30 officers. "Based on the
predictive models, we deploy them almost every three or four hours," Police
Chief Rodney Monroe says.
Officers have arrested 16 fugitives and confiscated
18 guns based on the system's guidance. In the first week of May, Richmond had
no homicides, compared with three in the same week last year. Monroe attributes
that outcome, in part, to moving officers around based on the calculated
probability of shooting incidents. "It's more proactive," Monroe says. "We're
not waiting for a homicide to occur."

In the news, it shows the softwares apply several methods such as Markov decision process, stream mining, and support vector machines to predict the future. Also it is good news to inventory management.

IBM last week introduced an inventory management application for retailers
that uses built-in predictive analytics and replenishment rules to monitor
product inventory, develop safety stock, and recommend orders based on an
analysis of historical demand. The commercial app has been used by IBM
consultants for years.

Only 2.4% compound annual growth rate for SC planning

Although the total market size for supply chain planning is already above 1 billion. But such low compounded annual growth rate indicates wave of SCM would be past soon.

The worldwide market for Supply Chain Planning is expected to grow at a
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 percent over the next five
years.
The market was $1.05 billion in 2005 and is forecasted to be over
$1.18 billion
in 2010, according to a new ARC Advisory Group study, "Supply
Chain Planning
Worldwide Outlook: Market Forecast and Analysis Through
2010."

Nevertheless, I think the slow increase rate is due to lack of professionals. So companies cannot convert software to the profit.

Super Bowl of Operations Research

Franz Edelman Award this year came to Warner Robins Air Logistics Center. They use "Critical Chain" to reduce repair and overhaul in the depot from thirteen to seven and repaired time drop 33%. When I try to find a little more detail from www.Informs.org, unfortunately there is even no further information. As I think "Critical Chain" is pretty similar to critical path. Maybe it considers undergoing tasks through repair network instead of static analysis of critical path and adjust resource correspondingly. I am not sure whether it will consider stochastical demand and repair time. If it doesn't invovle stochastical element in their model, it still has much space to improve.

If I get a chance to join this competition, I would like to implement my new idea about advertisement in TV.

Currently, the Ad during the program is quite even distributed. If I was watching a program and there is Ad, I would change the channel. I may find more attractive program or even attractive. Even if I cannot find one, I may switch back to the current channel without watching much Ad. Suppose now we use nearly exponential distributed Ad news. I think it may prevent people sticking changing channel.

First they cannot clear idea how long the Ad will be so they will change back quicker even if they change back

Second since it is exponential distributed, when you are back you will still see same expected length of Ad. given it is still Ad time

Third since there is more time each person watching Ad, the company can reduce total Ad length. It brings more satisfication of customer.

Ph.D. Thesis Research: Where do I Start?

I just finish reading this article. It is worth reading. The main questions this article hope to address is indicated from the title. So which topic I should choose?

New and Important. Everyone knows it. But how to find such topic is still the art. Although this article is for Economy major. But it is applicable to other major. Also it is not limited to how to pick a topic, it also mentions other important success factors for a PhD student.

I post some section titles as well as my opinion:
1. How Do I Find “The Right Topic”? (No right topic)
2. How do I know if I have an interesting topic? (Find a real world counterpart, discuss with others...)
3. Where do I start? Strategies for Research:
3.1 If you want to write applied theory, read empirics.
3.2 If you want to write empirics, read theory.
3.3 There is a “Research Frontier”; Your job is to find it.
3.4 Go to weekly departmental seminars in your field. ( I like it and hope to ask a question every time)
3.5 Go to seminars of potential new assistant professors at your school. ( I will try this summer at IP seminar)
3.6 Read the working papers of the intellectual leaders in your narrowly focused research area. 3.7 Read the best journals selectively. ( Still have no time to read or at least scan MS, OR, MSOM regularly)
3.8 Talk, Talk, Talk! Write, Write, Write! ( Need to practice more )
3.9 Question Authority! ( That's what I like to do )
3.10 DonÂ’t Take Courses! ( I don't agree this. But it is true that I will choose to audit rather than taking)
3.11 DonÂ’t teach! ( The author must be a American who doesn't need to worry about teaching as a professor )
3.12 Dealing with advisors. ( Yeah. "the risks of saying nothing far outweigh the costs of occasionally saying something stupid (so long as you also occasionally say something interesting!).")
3.13 Your advisor is too nice!
3.14 Present your work whenever possible.
3.15 Consider writing your first paper jointly.
3.16 Writing matters. ( Still a long way to go )
3.17 Presentation matters. ( Is it easier than writting? )
3.18 Inspiration is where you find it

The semester is over and the summer is coming

I finished all the final exams today. Now it is the time to set ambitious targets for this summer besides routine research work.

Three books to read
Zipkin: Foundations of Inventory Management
Ross: Stochastic Processes
Royden: Real Analysis

One course to audit
Derivatives and Risk Management

Sports
Running for half an hour three times a week
Doing Exercise at Gym for one hour two times a week
Tennis once a week