Only 2.4% compound annual growth rate for SC planning

Although the total market size for supply chain planning is already above 1 billion. But such low compounded annual growth rate indicates wave of SCM would be past soon.

The worldwide market for Supply Chain Planning is expected to grow at a
compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4 percent over the next five
years.
The market was $1.05 billion in 2005 and is forecasted to be over
$1.18 billion
in 2010, according to a new ARC Advisory Group study, "Supply
Chain Planning
Worldwide Outlook: Market Forecast and Analysis Through
2010."

Nevertheless, I think the slow increase rate is due to lack of professionals. So companies cannot convert software to the profit.

Multi-Echolen Problem: Too subtle

Every time, I read mult-echolen related literature and textbook, I will have different questions about definition (like sequence of events and echolen inventory) and proof. Until today, I read the first section of the chapter written by Federgruen called 'Centralized planning models for Multi-Echelon Inventory Systems under Uncertainty'.

Federgruen said the common event of sequence now is different from it by Clark and Scarf. Its prelimary of proof is much clearer than Axsater's book.

Avian Flu and Y2k

These two may both cause supply disruption. The difference as today CNN news point is quite interesting point of view.
Y2k: You know when it would happen, but you don't know what it costs.
Avian Flu: You know what it costs, but you don't know when it will happen.

Why we know what it costs? In the news, it is said that there is always three big Avian Flu in every century. So maybe people can estimate its cost from the history. But that cost is related how much effort people try to prevent or stop. Anyway, it is interesting criteria to divide different types of disruption, one time or recurrent?

Oh: Disruption May cause tens of billion US dollar

It is reported that "GM agrees to finance Delphi buyouts".

"The agreement provides a framework that will allow them to get some
significant things done," he said. "It takes the issue of a strike out of the
picture and puts a higher level of certainty on what the costs will be for GM on
both the Delphi restructuring as well as their own
downsizing."
GM said last week a labor deal at Delphi would probably cost the company
between $5.5 billion and $12 billion. The No. 1 automaker also said expects to
increase the charge for its contingent exposure to $3.6 billion in 2005 from the
previous estimate of $2.3 billion.

We can see the potential loss of disruption may cause GM more than billion. But the question is after doing so, can GM gain much lower price from Delphi in the future? We cannot overestimate the loss of disruption, although I hope it will be huge coz I am do research on that

We Were Warned: Tomorrow's Oil Crisis

Yesterday, I watched "CNN Presents Classroom: We Were Warned: Tomorrow's Oil Crisis". It seems oil crisis may bring disaster to SCM coz the variable cost of transportation would increase too much. Everything maybe localize. Once fixed cost is relatively low, most OR models will lose their meaning.